A new Quinnipiac Univ. poll suggests no 2020 presidential candidate, including President Trump, enjoys the support of a majority of Texas voters. As in its February poll, the poll released today shows Trump’s level of support is largely independent of the hypothetical Democratic opponent, unless that opponent is former Vice President Joe Biden.

Trump trails Biden, 48%-44%, among “Texas voters,” marking the first time a Qunnipiac poll has shown Trump trailing a potential Democratic opponent since his election. He leads the other polled contenders by 1-4 points, all within the poll’ stated margin of error of ±3.4%. Trump’s support peaks at 48% against former U.S. Rep. Beto O’Rourke (D-El Paso), while his non-Biden opponents peak at 45% (O’Rourke and Elizabeth Warren).

In February, Quinnipiac found Trump and Biden were statistically tied with Trump ahead by a point, 47%-46%. In that poll, women supported Biden, 51%-42%, and men backed Trump, 52%-41%. Since then, both genders have shifted slightly toward Biden. In the new poll, women support Biden, 54%-39%, while men back Trump, 50%-42%. The most significant shift occurred among independent voters. They favored Biden, 46%-41% (+5). In February and now back Biden, 55%-33% (+22).

Also notable, independents narrowly favored Trump over Warren, 44%-39%, and Kamala Harris, 43%-39%, in February. They now favor Warren, 47%-37%, and Harris, 43%-37%.

By a 60%-27% margin, Democrats and Democratic leaners want O’Rourke to abandon his presidential campaign and instead challenge U.S. Sen. John Cornyn (R). Those same respondents favor four candidates for the nomination: Biden (30%), O’Rourke (16%), Bernie Sanders (15%) and Warren (11%). Aside from former San Antonio Mayor Julián Castro (4%) and Harris (4%), no other Democratic candidate polls above 3%.

Looking at Cornyn, his job approval rating is 44/33 overall and, importantly, 63/12 among Republicans, suggesting a primary challenger has a markedly uphill climb.

The poll of 1,159 “Texas voters” was in the field May 29-June 4. The sample included 407 self-identified Democrats and “Democrat leaners.”


CD23: San Antonio medical practice administrator and progressive activist Rosey Ramos Aruabara established a campaign committee for a potential challenge of U.S. Rep. Will Hurd (R-San Antonio) as a Democrat.

Houston: Council member Dwight Boykins established a campaign committee to challenge Mayor Sylvester Turner in November. His campaign treasurer is former three-term Mayor Lee P. Brown, who was the first African-American elected to lead the city.

©2019 Texas Election Source LLC