SEN: A new Ipsos/Reuters online poll shows U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz (R) leading U.S. Rep. Beto O’Rourke (D-El Paso), 49%-44%, with “Other” polling at 3%. Libertarian nominee Neal Dikeman is the only other candidate on the ballot. The poll shows Gov. Greg Abbott (R) leading former Dallas Co. Sheriff Lupe Valdez (D), 53%-38%. Both spreads are narrower than those found by recent polls, but larger than Ipsos/Reuters found in a September poll, which is the only one we’ve seen that had O’Rourke ahead.
Cruz leads among self-identified “independent” likely voters, 48%-33%. Abbott leads among the same group, 58%-23%.
The poll found that 75% of self-identified Democrats and 72% of Republicans rated their likelihood to vote a 10 on a scale of one to 10. Just 55% of independents rated their voting likelihood a 10. Another 23% rated it a five. Yet, independents are the most “interested … in following news” about the election compared to the partisans.
Consistent with prior polls, including past election years, O’Rourke fares better with “adults” rather than “likely voters.” O’Rourke leads Cruz, 40%-38%, among all adults. One out of six adults rated their likelihood to vote a one, while 49% rated it a ten.
Overall, “likely voters” lean toward thinking the country is on the wrong track (44/49) and the state is on the right track (51/41). They are evenly divided on President Trump’s job performance (48/48), though those with “strong” opinions are more negative (31/39).
The polling memo did not report results broken out by gender, ethnicity or age. The partisan split of the “likely voters” sample was 53% Republican, 37% Democrat and 6% independent. The survey of 2,001 adults was drawn from a series of online panels. Respondents were interviewed in English. We have previously expressed concerns with this sampling methodology. The poll’s stated credibility interval is ±3.1%. It has no statistical margin of error.
GOV: The Bryan-College Station Eagle endorsed Gov. Greg Abbott (R)
LTGOV: The Bryan-College Station Eagle endorsed Democratic challenger Mike Collier over Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick (R).
AG: The Bryan-College Station Eagle endorsed Atty. Gen. Ken Paxton (R).
COMP: The Waco Tribune-Herald endorsed Comptroller Glenn Hegar (R).
AGRIC: The Bryan-College Station Eagle endorsed Democratic challenger Kim Olson over Comm. Sid Miller (R).
HD45: Rep. Dawnna Dukes (D-Austin) has filed suit against three former legislative staffers, an employee in the State Auditor’s Office, the Austin American-Statesman, one of its journalists, the Travis Co. District Attorney’s Office and former District Atty. Rosemary Lehmberg, the Statesman’s Chuck Lindell reported. The suit alleges Dukes was the victim of a conspiracy to ruin her political career. She filed the suit without an attorney. She lost her re-election bid when she failed to make the 2018 Democratic runoff.
CD2 open: A TargetPoint Consulting poll shows Republican nominee Dan Crenshaw leading Democratic challenger Todd Litton, 49%-40%, with 8% undecided. No other information was provided in the polling memo.
CD23: The Congressional Leadership Fund SuperPAC released a new ad, “Caught,” attacking Democratic challenger Gina Ortiz Jones.
CD32: The Dallas Morning News endorsed U.S. Rep. Pete Sessions (R-Dallas). Meanwhile, the America First PAC announced it added $700K in support of Sessions, bringing its total to more than $3M.
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