A new Fox News Poll (PDF) finds Joe Biden leading President Trump, 45%-44%, in Texas.

Trump led among men, 51%-39%, while Biden had an identical lead among women, 51%-39%. Trump led among Anglo voters, 60%-31%, while Biden led among Black voters, 85%-6%, and Hispanic/Latino voters, 62%-25%. Self-identified “millennials” preferred Biden by a 2-to-1 margin, 58%-29%.

Biden fares slightly better among Democrats (91%-3%) than Trump does among Republicans (88%-6%), and Biden leads among independents, 40%-22%, with 38% supporting “other” (13%), not voting (6%) or not knowing who they will vote for (18%).

Biden leads among “suburban women,” 53%-35%, which is a little better than his performance among women as a whole. This particular constituency could be very important to determining not only the presidential race in Texas but also control of the state House. Many of the state’s most competitive districts are In suburban areas.

Trump’s approval rating is 50/48 with 34% strongly approving and 40% strongly disapproving. His rating among suburban women is 39/58 with 52% strongly disapproving.

The polls finds U.S. Sen. John Cornyn (R) with 10-point leads over either Democratic runoff candidate. Cornyn leads M.J. Hegar, 46%-36%, and Sen. Royce West (D-Dallas), 47%-37%.

As with Biden, Hegar leads Cornyn among suburban women, 45%-37%, and West leads among the same group, 44%-38%.

Gov. Greg Abbott’s approval rating is 63/32.

The poll of 1,001 “Texas voters” was conducted under the joint direction of Beacon Research, a Democrat-aligned polling firm, and Shaw & Company Research, which is aligned with Republicans. It was in the field March 20-23. Interviews were conducted in English and Spanish over landlines (24%) and mobile phones (76%). The stated margin of error for the full sample is ±3%.

AG: District Judge Robert Johnson has ordered the criminal case against Atty. Gen. Ken Paxton (R) be moved back to Collin Co. from Harris Co., where it was moved in 2017. Prosecutors, whose compensation remains unresolved, said they would appeal Johnson’s ruling.

He was indicted on felony securities fraud charges nearly five years ago. It’s been nearly a year that Paxton’s attorneys requested the case be returned to his home county. A similar federal case has been dismissed twice.

HD26 open: The Texas Municipal Police Association PAC endorsed Jacey Jetton in the Republican runoff over Matthew Morgan.

HD100: The Texas Assoc. of Realtors TREPAC endorsed Rep. Lorraine Birabil (D-Dallas) in the runoff over Jasmine Crockett. The group did not endorse in the primary.

HD148: The Texas Assoc. of Realtors TREPAC endorsed Rep. Anna Eastman (D-Houston) in the runoff over Penny “Morales” Shaw. The group did not endorse in the primary.

SEN: The San Antonio Express-News endorsed M.J. Hegar in the Democratic runoff over Sen. Royce West (D-Dallas). The paper previously endorsed former Houston council member Amanda Edwards in the primary.

CD2: EMILY’s List endorsed Democratic challenger Sima Ladjevardian over U.S. Rep. Dan Crenshaw (R-Houston).

CD10: The Houston Chronicle reiterated its primary endorsement of Mike Siegel for the Democratic runoff over Pritesh Gandhi.

CD13 open: Former Comptroller Susan Combs (R) endorsed Josh Winegarner in the Republican runoff over Ronny Jackson.

CD22 open: The Houston Chronicle endorsed Fort Bend Co. Sheriff Troy Nehls (R) in the runoff over Kathaleen Wall. The paper previously endorsed Pierce Bush in the primary.

Recent Presidential Polls

  • Trump 48, Biden 46 – Public Policy Polling (June)
  • Trump 48, Biden 48 – Public Policy Polling (June)
  • Trump 44, Biden 43 – Quinnipiac Univ. (June)
  • Trump 47, Biden 41 – Emerson (May)
  • Trump 43, Biden 43 – DMN/UT-Tyler (May)
  • Biden 47, Trump 46 – Public Policy Polling (April)
  • Trump 49, Biden 44 – UT/Texas Tribune (April)
  • Trump 45, Biden 44 – DMN/UT-Tyler (March)
  • Trump 46, Biden 43 – Univision/Univ. of Houston (February)
  • Biden 48, Trump 47 – CNN/SSRS (February)
  • Trump 47, Biden 43 – UT/Texas Tribune (February)
  • Trump 44, Biden 42 – DMN/UT-Tyler (February)
  • Trump 51, Biden 46 – Texas Lyceum (January)
  • Trump 48, Biden 47 – CNN/SSRS (December 2019)
  • Trump 45, Biden 39 – DMN/UT-Tyler (November 2019)
  • Trump 46, Biden 39 – UT/Texas Tribune (November 2019)

Links go to our coverage or commentary on the polls.

©2020 Texas Election Source LLC

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