Early voting for the March 6 primary election begins tomorrow.

Poll Numbers

A new UT/Texas Tribune poll suggests statewide incumbents have significant leads over their primary rivals, but voters remain fairly divided about their job performance:

  • GOV (R): Gov. Greg Abbott 95, Barbara Krueger 5, Secede Kilgore 0
  • GOV (D): Lupe Valdez 43, Andrew White 24, Grady Yarbrough 7, Tom Wakely 7, others 18
  • LTGOV (R): Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick 88, Scott Milder 12
  • LTGOV (D): Mike Collier 55, Michael Cooper 45
  • LAND (R): Comm. George P. Bush 57, former Comm. Jerry Patterson 31, others 12
  • LAND (D): Miguel Suazo 68, Tex Morgan 32
  • AGRIC (R): Comm. Sid Miller 54, Trey Blocker 26, Jim Hogan 20
  • SEN (R): U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz 91, Bruce Jacobson Jr. 3, Mary Miller 3, others 3
  • SEN (D): U.S. Rep. Beto O’Rourke 73, Sema Hernandez 19, Edward Kimbrough 8

Respondents were evenly split on their assessments of the job performances of President Trump (46/46), Cruz (40/41) and Patrick (36/33). Abbott had a net favorable of +15 (46/31), and U.S. Sen. John Cornyn was viewed unfavorably on balance (29/38).

Respondents were asked to rate their likelihood to vote in the March primary from a scale of 0 (definitely not voting) to 10 (“absolutely certain to vote”). More than half of respondents gave themselves a 10, seemingly defying historical voter participation rates. However, the pollsters changed their sampling methodology for the horse race questions only. Instead of using self-reported measures of how likely a person is to vote, the pollsters relied on past primary voting history to determine whether or not a person should be considered likely to vote.

Endorsements

Corpus Christi Caller-Times: The paper released its primary endorsements, including challenger Scott Milder over Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick (R), former Land Comm. Jerry Patterson over Comm. George P. Bush (R), challenger Trey Blocker over Agriculture Comm. Sid Miller (R), challenger David Bridges over Presiding Judge Sharon Keller (R) and challenger Stefano de Stefano over U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz (R). The paper endorsed Gov. Greg Abbott (R) and Lupe Valdez (D) in their respective primaries. The paper endorsed Bech Bruun (R) and Eric Holguin (D) in their respective primaries for the seat being vacated by U.S. Rep. Blake Farenthold (R-Corpus Christi).

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